Bulletin no. 12: System dynamics modelling using a stocks and flows approach


One of the key components of the first phase of the DPMP project has been to develop a quantitative dynamic model of drug use in Australia. Using a stocks and flows approach, derived from similar work undertaken in the US on cocaine prevalence by Caulkins and collaborators, the key aim of this component of the DPMP has been to examine whether methods can be applied to the Australian context using available data. If a plausible model could be developed, then the subsequent aims were to use the model to describe: 1.The prevalence of drug use in Australia over time; and 2. the effects of changes in model parameters upon the prevalence of injecting drug use and the associated social costs.