Knowledge about drug suppliers, including traffickers, is slim. This stymies our capacity to understand, foresee and forewarn what Australian and international drug traffickers will do and what policy responses are likely to be most effective. This project, which forms the basis for Matthew O'Reilly's doctoral thesis, aims to increase understanding about high-level drug trafficking and drug supply in Australia.
In the illicit drug policy arena understanding the nature of supply, demand and harm is of self-evident importance. Yet, both on the international and domestic front knowledge about those that supply the drugs (particularly high-level supply) remains slim. In particular, very little is known about how traffickers respond when there are significant changes in the supply chain. For instance, if there is a significant reduction in Australia’s supply of MDMA, potential responses for MDMA traffickers might be to seek to sell another drug to their clients (e.g. meth/amphetamine), continue to sell MDMA at reduced purity/quality, seek to find new suppliers, exit the market (i.e. to cease being a trafficker altogether) or to enter other forms of crime.The dearth of knowledge in this area stymies current capacity to understand, foresee and forewarn what Australian and international drug traffickers will do in response to significant fluctuations in supply and what policy responses are likely to be most effective.
To increase understanding about high-level drug trafficking and drug supply in Australia.
Component 1. to document key changes in the extent and nature of Australian importation and distribution of two illicit drugs: MDMA and meth/amphetamine
Component 2. to examine how high level MDMA and meth/amphetamine traffickers operate in the Australian drug market and specifically how they respond to changes in supply (i.e. changes in purity, availability, price, supply routes and competitors/collaborators in the market)
The project is divided into two principal components and utilises both quantitative and qualitative methods.
- Component 1: Using unit-record data from the Department of Immigration and Border Protection, border supply trends for MDMA (+ precursors) and meth/amphetamine (+precursors) will be analysed between 2002 and 2014 to identify changes in the scale and nature of supply of these drugs to Australia.
- Component 2: Publicly available sentencing transcripts from Australian court cases of either serious MDMA or serious meth/amphetamine trafficking offences will be analysed: i.e. cases where the offender was sentenced for trafficking a commercial or large commercial quantity (as defined by the states and territories). A content analysis of the transcripts will determine how MDMA and meth/amphetamine traffickers have responded to changes in supply in the past (i.e. changes in purity, availability, price, supply routes and competitors/collaborators in the market).
Component 1 will assess what about supply has changed. Component 2 will assess why the changes in supply may have occurred.
The supply trend analyses for MDMA (+ precursors) and meth/amphetamine (+precursors) are nearing completion.
Manuscripts for the meth/amphetamine and ecstasy supply trends analyses will be submitted for publication early 2017 (i.e. component 1). A manuscript for the component 2 study will be submitted at the end of 2017. The PhD thesis will be submitted at the end of 2017.